Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: BA

BA implied volatility is at 31.15%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

BA is trading at $242.96 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 31.15%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$242.96

IV

31.15%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 31.15% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.31%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$10.47.

The market expects BA to stay within ±4.31% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.31%

Exp. Move $

±$10.47

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$232.48 — $253.44

80% Confidence

$229.53 — $256.39

90% Confidence

$225.72 — $260.20

95% Confidence

$222.42 — $263.50

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 31.15% implies a ±4.31% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $232.48 to $253.44.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.