Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: FCX

FCX implied volatility is at 48.89%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

FCX is trading at $62.84 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 48.89%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$62.84

IV

48.89%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 48.89% × √(7/365) ≈ 6.77%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$4.25.

The market expects FCX to stay within ±6.77% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±6.77%

Exp. Move $

±$4.25

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$58.59 — $67.09

80% Confidence

$57.39 — $68.29

90% Confidence

$55.84 — $69.84

95% Confidence

$54.50 — $71.18

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 48.89% implies a ±6.77% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $58.59 to $67.09.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.