Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: NFLX

NFLX implied volatility is at 34.24%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

NFLX is trading at $76.87 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 34.24%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$76.87

IV

34.24%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 34.24% × √(7/365) ≈ 4.74%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$3.64.

The market expects NFLX to stay within ±4.74% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±4.74%

Exp. Move $

±$3.64

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$73.23 — $80.51

80% Confidence

$72.20 — $81.54

90% Confidence

$70.87 — $82.87

95% Confidence

$69.73 — $84.01

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 34.24% implies a ±4.74% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $73.23 to $80.51.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.