Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: ORCL

ORCL implied volatility is at 54.80%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

ORCL is trading at $160.14 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 54.80%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$160.14

IV

54.80%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 54.80% × √(7/365) ≈ 7.59%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$12.15.

The market expects ORCL to stay within ±7.59% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±7.59%

Exp. Move $

±$12.15

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$147.99 — $172.29

80% Confidence

$144.56 — $175.72

90% Confidence

$140.15 — $180.13

95% Confidence

$136.32 — $183.96

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 54.80% implies a ±7.59% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $147.99 to $172.29.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.