Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: QQQ

QQQ implied volatility is at 22.77%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

QQQ is trading at $601.92 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 22.77%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$601.92

IV

22.77%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 22.77% × √(7/365) ≈ 3.15%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$18.96.

The market expects QQQ to stay within ±3.15% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±3.15%

Exp. Move $

±$18.96

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$582.94 — $620.90

80% Confidence

$577.59 — $626.25

90% Confidence

$570.70 — $633.14

95% Confidence

$564.72 — $639.12

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 22.77% implies a ±3.15% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $582.94 to $620.90.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.