Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: RKLB

RKLB implied volatility is at 83.60%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

RKLB is trading at $67.44 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 83.60%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$67.44

IV

83.60%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 83.60% × √(7/365) ≈ 11.58%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$7.81.

The market expects RKLB to stay within ±11.58% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±11.58%

Exp. Move $

±$7.81

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$59.63 — $75.25

80% Confidence

$57.43 — $77.45

90% Confidence

$54.60 — $80.28

95% Confidence

$52.14 — $82.74

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 83.60% implies a ±11.58% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $59.63 to $75.25.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.