Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: SMCI

SMCI implied volatility is at 62.38%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

SMCI is trading at $30.54 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 62.38%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$30.54

IV

62.38%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 62.38% × √(7/365) ≈ 8.64%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$2.64.

The market expects SMCI to stay within ±8.64% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±8.64%

Exp. Move $

±$2.64

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$27.90 — $33.18

80% Confidence

$27.16 — $33.92

90% Confidence

$26.20 — $34.88

95% Confidence

$25.37 — $35.71

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 62.38% implies a ±8.64% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $27.90 to $33.18.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.