Volatility Analysis

Weekly Volatility Outlook: TSLA

TSLA implied volatility is at 38.96%. We break down the 7-day expected move and probability zones.

4 min read

Market Context

TSLA is trading at $417.44 with an annualized Implied Volatility (IV) of 38.96%.

With 7 days to expiration (Target: Feb 20, 2026), the market is pricing in the following potential range.

Analysis Date

Feb 13, 2026

Target Date

Feb 20, 2026

Price

$417.44

IV

38.96%

Volatility Math (7 Days)

To estimate the expected move, we convert annualized IV to the 7-day timeframe.

Formula: 38.96% × √(7/365) ≈ 5.40%.

In dollar terms, this is approximately ±$22.54.

The market expects TSLA to stay within ±5.40% about 68% of the time over the next 7 days.

Time Factor

0.1385

Exp. Move %

±5.40%

Exp. Move $

±$22.54

Probability Cone

The following table shows the statistical probability ranges based on current volatility.

68% Confidence

$394.92 — $439.96

80% Confidence

$388.56 — $446.32

90% Confidence

$380.39 — $454.49

95% Confidence

$373.29 — $461.59

Disclaimer

This analysis is a static projection based on current IV. Real-world events may cause price to move outside these bounds. Not investment advice.

Key takeaways

  • Current IV of 38.96% implies a ±5.40% move in 7 days.
  • The 68% confidence interval is $394.92 to $439.96.
  • Ranges are based on static IV; earnings or news can expand these significantly.